Dollar Edges Higher, But Set For Another Weekly Decline By Investing.com - Investing.com

Dollar Edges Higher, But Set For Another Weekly Decline By Investing.com - Investing.com
FOREX-Dollar heads for longest weekly losing streak since July - Investing.com India
Investing in the IRS and Improving Tax Compliance - Forex Factory
USD/CAD Forecast Ahead of the Canadian GDP Data - InvestingCube

Posted: 29 Apr 2021 11:58 PM PDT

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com - The dollar edged higher Friday, but remains near multi-week lows and was set for a fourth consecutive week of losses with the U.S. Federal Reserve retaining its dovish monetary policy even as the economy recovers.

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.1% at 90.648, trading around levels last seen in late February.

The index is on course to end the week 0.2% lower, bringing its losses for April to 2.8%. A four-week losing streak would be the longest since the six-week slide to the end of July. In part that's because of the gains of commodity currencies, amid surging prices for both industrial and agricultural products. The dollar's biggest losses this week have been against the and dollars.

traded down 0.1% at 1.2113, near the two-month high of 1.2150 set the previous session. was flat at 1.3942, fell 0.1% to 108.77, just off the two-week high of 109.22 from Thursday. The risk-sensitive rose 0.2% to 0.7779, climbing back toward the six-week high of 0.7818 seen on Thursday.

This dollar weakness was helped by the decision of the Federal Reserve to leave its ultra easy monetary policies in place even while it acknowledged that there had been an improvement in the economic conditions, as typified by first-quarter growth of 6.4%, released Thursday.

"With front-end U.S. real rates already deeply negative and set to fall further as U.S. CPI rises sharply this quarter, this is likely to be a USD negative, particularly when other parts of the world (namely Europe) are set to see an economic rebound in coming months," said ING analysts, in a note.

Evidence of that coming rebound in Europe came with the release of the first-quarter French figure earlier Friday, with output in the euro area's second-largest economy growing 0.4% in the three months through March.

Elsewhere, was largely flat at 6.4706 despite China's accelerating at a slower-than-expected pace in April, with said the country's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index coming in at 51.1, lower than March's 51.9 reading.

Staying in Asia, rose 0.4% to 1,111.85 after South Korea's industrial output fell 0.8% on the month in March, shy of expectations for an increase of 0.1%.

Additionally, dropped 0.1% to 8.2093 after Turkey's central bank raised its year-end inflation forecast on Thursday to 12.2% from 9.4%, and its new governor said tight policy would be maintained until price pressures decline.

"While the Central Bank of Turkey sees the inflation rate peaking in April, the trajectory is relatively optimistic compared to current market expectations," added ING.

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FOREX-Dollar heads for longest weekly losing streak since July - Investing.com India

Posted: 30 Apr 2021 01:12 AM PDT

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Ritvik Carvalho and Kevin Buckland

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar skidded towards a fourth straight weekly decline and its longest weekly streak of losses since last July against a basket of major peers on Friday, as the Federal Reserve stuck to its message of ultra-low interest rates for longer.

The =USD was on course to end the week 0.2% lower, bringing its losses for April to 2.7%. A four-week losing streak would be the longest since the six-week slide to the end of last July, and the monthly loss would also be the biggest since July's 4% slump.

The Canadian dollar CAD=D3 climbed to a more-than three-year high of C$1.2264 per greenback on Friday, on track for a 1.6% weekly gain that would be its biggest since the start of November.

At the conclusion of the Fed's latest policy meeting on Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the U.S. economy's growth, but said there was not yet enough evidence of "substantial further progress" toward recovery to warrant a change to its ultra-loose monetary settings. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, buoyed by government stimulus cheques, setting the course for what is expected this year to be the strongest performance in nearly four decades. that a strengthening economy, particularly in the labour market, might force the Fed into an earlier tapering of its asset-purchase programme had pushed the dollar index, or DXY, to a five-month high at the end of March.

"DXY may attempt a rebound in coming days as expectations turn to a potentially blockbuster April payrolls next week, but gains will prove short-lived with Fed officials to underscore Powell's resolutely dovish stance," Westpac strategists wrote in a client note.

The gauge is likely to drop below 90 in the near term, from 90.6 currently, but the "DXY's depreciation trend is likely more of an ongoing grind than a wholesale sharp setback", they said.

The Fed's dovishness was in marked contrast to the Bank of Canada, which has already begun to taper its asset purchases. Canada's commodity-linked got additional support from a surge in oil to a six-week peak along with higher lumber prices.

Rising commodity prices also supported the Australian dollar AUD=D3 , which gained 0.2% to $0.77785, climbing back toward a six-week high of $0.78180 touched Thursday.

"We think the out-performance of pro-cyclical currencies (those exposed to the global business cycle) should be a core theme for the rest of the year, despite concerns about higher U.S. yields," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

The euro traded 0.2% lower at $1.21020, near the two-month high of $1.2150 set the previous session. The shared currency is up 0.2% for the week and 3.3% for the month.

The yen , a traditional haven, also traded flat at 108.88 per dollar, near the two-week low of 109.22 from Thursday, setting it up for a loss of about 0.9% for the week.

China's yuan CNH=D3 traded near its strongest since March 3 in the offshore market, last changing hands at 6.4711 per dollar, even as gauges of Chinese factory activity showed a loss of momentum in April. yuan has jumped some 1.5% this month from a four-month low of 6.5875 on April 1, but Mizuho strategist Ken Cheung wrote in a client note that a re-pricing of growth trajectories for China versus the United States would keep the rally in check from here.

In cryptocurrencies, ether ETH=BTSP hovered below a record high of $2,800.89 set on Thursday, after being lifted this week on media reports about the European Investment Bank's plans to launch a "digital bond" sale on the ethereum blockchain network. use case of ethereum has just grown exponentially," particularly with wider use of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), said Tim Frost, chief executive at fintech company YIELD App.

"All signs point to a continued bull market."

Bigger rival bitcoin traded at $54,343.80, vacillating around that level this week after dipping as low as $47,004.20 on Sunday, following a sharp retreat from the record high of $64,895.22 marked in the middle of the month.

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https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E Dollar heads for fourth weekly loss

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Investing in the IRS and Improving Tax Compliance - Forex Factory

Posted: 29 Apr 2021 12:53 AM PDT

From home.treasury.gov

A well-functioning tax system requires that all taxpayers pay what they owe. An unfortunate characteristic of the current system, however, is an asymmetric adherence to tax law by the nature of income received. While roughly 99% of the taxes due on wages are remitted to the Internal Revenue Service, compliance across other forms of income is substantially less, as the IRS has difficulty verifying whether income from opaque sources is properly reported. Noncompliance is concentrated at the top of the distribution: A recent study found that the top 1 percent failed to report 20 percent of their income and failed to pay ... (full story)

USD/CAD Forecast Ahead of the Canadian GDP Data - InvestingCube

Posted: 29 Apr 2021 11:53 PM PDT

USD/CAD has declined further ahead of the Canadian GDP data. Analysts expect a reading of 0.5% MoM compared to January's 0.7%. Earlier in the week, the country recorded strong growth in retail sales at 4.8% MoM. The number was higher than the expected 4.0% and January's -1.1%. The rise in crude oil price has also strengthened the Canadian dollar. WTI futures have risen from $60.63 on Monday to the week's high of $65.45 on Thursday.

Despite the strong economic data and steady recovery, Canada is still struggling with the rising cases of COVID-19. On Wednesday, the Pan American Health Organization note that the infection rate in Canada has surpassed that of the US for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. In the US, about a third of the populace has been fully vaccinated. In comparison, about 3% of Canadians have received the jab.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

USD/CAD remains on a downtrend ahead of Canada's GDP data, which is scheduled for Friday. At the time of writing, the pair was down by 0.07% at 1.2273. This is its lowest level since January 2018. Since the beginning of the week, it has fallen by about 1.75%.

The formation of a bearish pennant is an indication that USD/CAD is likely to fall further. However, with the rising COVID-19 cases in Canada, the pair may rise to 1.2287 before moving further down. On the lower side, the levels to watch out for are 1.2250 and 1.2172. The latter will be its lowest level since September 2017. However, a move above 1.2300 will invalidate this thesis.

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