(Video) Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP (March 2 - 6, 2020) - Daily Price Action
(Video) Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP (March 2 - 6, 2020) - Daily Price Action |
- (Video) Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP (March 2 - 6, 2020) - Daily Price Action
- How to Use the Weekly Time Frame in Forex Trading - DailyForex.com
- Welcome to the High Vol World: What the Charts Say - Forex Factory
- How to Create a Candlestick Chart on Excel - Forex Factory
Posted: 02 Mar 2020 12:00 AM PST In this weekly Forex forecast, I'm going to show you exactly how I'm trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, and EURGBP through March 6, 2020. Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
EURUSD ForecastThe EURUSD put in a big move last week. I mentioned the potential for a bounce here in last weekend's forecast. The test of that descending channel near 1.0780 is something I discussed on February 13th. As you can see, that channel is still directing the price action for the EURUSD. With the pair now above the 1.0990 key level, we could see a run at 1.1080 this week, and perhaps a test of that channel top near 1.1170/80. Get Instant Access to the Same "New York Close" Forex Charts Used by Justin Bennett! Just keep in mind that Monday's open will be critical. All in all, though, I have to stay bullish in the short-term while the pair is trading above 1.0990 on a daily closing basis.
Only a close below that level would suggest weakness and open the door to the 2019 lows near 1.0900. Want Me To Help You Become A Better Forex Trader? Get a Lifetime Membership Today and receive exclusive member-only content including one to two new videos every day. Save 40% in February!
GBPUSD ForecastThe GBPUSD finally reached 1.2770 support last week. I discussed the potential for a move lower from 1.3050 in the February 16th weekly forecast. I also wrote about the likelihood of a move to 1.2770 on February 19th. It took longer than anticipated, but the GBPUSD tested 1.2770 support on Friday. Given the way the pair bounced intraday, it's pretty clear that 1.2770 is, in fact, a significant level for the pound. However, the GBPUSD still closed the day, week, and month below 1.2870. Notice how that level supported the pair throughout February, until the last day of the month that is. For the week ahead, it's going to take a daily close below 1.2770 to open the door to the next key support at 1.2570. Alternatively, any retest of the 1.2870 region will likely attract sellers.
USDJPY ForecastThe USDJPY confirmed a massive false break last week. Buyers confirmed the bullish breakout on the daily and weekly time frames last week, but it didn't last. One big clue was the velocity of last week's pullback. I've mentioned the importance of "rounded retests" in the past, and last week's retracement was anything but round. The aggressive pullback hinted at the possibility of a false break situation, which is why I wrote the February 25th commentary. The key takeaway from that post was that a daily close below 109.80 would confirm the false move and send the pair lower. Sure enough, Thursday's close gave us just that, and sellers followed through on Friday. With the USDJPY now below the channel bottom, all eyes are on 106.80, followed by the multi-year wedge support between 105.50 and 106.00. Alternatively, a push higher this week into the area between 109.00 and 109.50 would likely attract sellers. Get Access To The Same New York Close Forex Charts I Use. DOWNLOAD the charting platform for free!
USDCAD ForecastThe USDCAD broke free from a confluence of resistance near 1.3300 last week. I mentioned the breakout in the member's area on Wednesday and how the area just above 1.3300 was new support. Thursday's session gave us a low of 1.3316 before rocketing 150 pips higher. The upper wick on Friday's candle illustrates the profit-taking that occurred before the weekend. Note that Friday was also the last trading day of February, so late-session moves like this are pretty standard. Whether or not USDCAD catches a bid this week from the 1.3380 level or not is up in the air. We could see the pair retest that 1.3300 support area first, or march higher (no pun intended) toward the next key resistance at 1.3530. Like the other pairs in today's forecast, the first 24 hours will be telling.
EURGBP ForecastI've been discussing a potential EURGBP bottom since January 31st. I mentioned it again on February 19th. As you can tell from the chart below, buyers are doing their part to make that idea a reality. Not only did EURGBP take out the confluence of resistance at 0.8460 on Thursday, but the pair also closed above 0.8590 on Friday. Or so it seems. There isn't much room between Friday's close and that 0.8590 key level, which means Monday's open will be critical. Not only that, but the first 24 hours of the new week should tell us if we'll get a deeper pullback first or if 0.8590 will hold as new support. Either way, I'm staying bullish the EURGBP while above 0.8460. And as I've mentioned in recent members-only videos, I like the EURGBP toward 0.8800 and perhaps even 0.8900 in the coming days and weeks. Want Me To Help You Become A Better Forex Trader? Get a Lifetime Membership Today and receive exclusive member-only content including one to two new videos every day. Save 40% in February! |
How to Use the Weekly Time Frame in Forex Trading - DailyForex.com Posted: 28 Feb 2020 02:11 AM PST One of the main reasons why most Forex traders lose money is a failure to trade based upon longer-term, higher time frames such as the weekly time frame. This article explains why and how to use the weekly time frame in your Forex trading, and outlines both rules and actual historical performances of a few weekly time frame trading strategies which you might use or adapt. What is Time Frame in Forex Trading?"Time frame" in Forex trading means the unit of time that the price chart you are viewing is based on. For example, in a weekly time frame Japanese candlestick chart, each candlestick represents one week of time. In a 5-minute time frame Japanese candlestick chart, each candlestick represents 5 minutes of time. Shorter time frames show much more detail of price movement over time, but longer time frames show wider, longer-term pictures of trends and ranges in the price. Why You Should Use the Weekly Time Frame in Forex TradingThe most effective, profitable, and powerful tool you can use to trade Forex is to pay attention to whether or not there is a long-term trend or range in any currency pairs or crosses, especially the major pairs; and if so, in which direction that trend is going. Then, make sure that you trade in the same direction as that trend, or trade reversals from support and resistance when there is no trend and the price is ranging. Use a higher time frame price chart such as the weekly time frame to make these calls. While you can use a daily time frame chart for the same purpose, you should use the weekly time frame in Forex trading for this because it is easier to judge the very long-term price action at a glance there. It is also a good idea to drill down and use at least one shorter time frame chart as well, such as the 4 hour or hourly time frames, to fine-tune your trade entries and exits to make them more precise, which also means more profitable. How to Measure Trend with the Weekly Time FrameThe reason why the weekly time frame is the best time frame for trading Forex is because historical Forex data shows that when the price is higher than it was several months ago, it is more likely to rise than fall, and vice versa when the price is lower than it was several months ago. So, if you pull up a weekly chart, one easy trick you can do to create the best trend indicator, is count back 13 and 26 weeks from the current weekly candlestick. Is the price now higher than it was at those times? If yes, you have a long-term uptrend. If it was lower at both, you have a long-term downtrend. If the results are mixed, you have no trend. Forget all the fancy Forex indicators – this is a method which is both very simple and effective. For example, the weekly timeframe chart of the EUR/USD currency pair below shows the current weekly candlestick, on the far right, clearly below the opening prices of the candlesticks from 13 and 26 weeks ago. So, there is a clear downtrend, and this week traders can look for short trades in this currency pair. Weekly Time Frame: Long-term Downtrend In another example, the weekly timeframe chart of the GBP/USD currency pair below shows the current weekly candlestick, on the far right, closing above the opening price of the candlestick from 13 weeks ago, but also below the opening price of the candlestick from 26 weeks ago. So, there is no long-term trend, and next week traders who want to trade this currency pair should look to trade reversals at support and resistance levels. Weekly Time Frame: No Long-term Trend Should You Use Only One Time Frame in Forex Trading?Although a weekly time frame chart can show you a trading edge, in all except very limited circumstances (explained in more detail below in the "Trading Forex with the Weekly Time Frame Only" section), it is not smart to trade using the weekly time frame alone. In fact, using just a single time frame to trade Forex is usually a bad idea, whatever time frame you might pick. However, using higher time frames such as the weekly price chart, can at least tell you whether there is a long-term trend and if so, in what direction. There are several reasons why trading using the weekly time frame alone is usually a bad idea:
Multi Time Frame Trading with the Weekly Time FrameMultiple time frame analysis is simply looking at two or more price charts for the same Forex currency pair or cross or other instrument, at the same time. You make a multiple time frame analysis by looking first at a higher time frame and using that chart to determine whether the price is trending (and if so, in what direction) or ranging, and also maybe to identify clear support and resistance levels. It is a top-down analysis, because once you have that information from the higher time frame, you then use a lower time frame to trade from that analysis, which will usually get you more precise trade entries and exits which should maximize your reward to risk ratio. There are a few good Forex trading strategies which have historically been profitable on the weekly time frame, outlined below. You can use a shorter time frame as a tool to trade these strategies more effectively. The results detailed below are from back tests conducted on sixteen major and minor Forex currency pairs over a very long period of almost 20 years, from 2001 to 2020. Thousands of samples were taken, increasing the statistical validity of the back test. Weekly Multi Time Frame Breakout Trend Strategy
Weekly Breakout Trend Strategy: Short Trade Entry Weekly Multi Time Frame "Buy the Dips" Trend Strategy
Weekly "Buy the Dips" Trend Strategy: Short Trade Entry There are also two weekly trading strategies with good track records which can more safely be used with only the weekly time frame. Trading with the Weekly Time Frame OnlyThese strategies produce trades which are meant to be entered just as a week ends, and held until the same time next week, without a stop loss. This can of course be traded more precisely by using a shorter time frame as well. Weekly Time Frame "Buy the Strong Dips" Trend Strategy
Weekly "Buy the Strong Dips" Trend Strategy: Long Trade Entry A back-test equity curve of this strategy using weekly moves from open to close greater than 2% in value trading 16 Forex currency pairs and crosses from 2001 to 2020 is shown below. Trades were hypothetically entered at the end of a qualifying week and held until the next week's close. Spreads and overnight financing payments/charges were not included. Weekly "Buy the Strong Dips" Trend Strategy: Equity Curve Weekly Time Frame "High Volatility Mean Reversion" Strategy
Final Thoughts
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Welcome to the High Vol World: What the Charts Say - Forex Factory Posted: 15 Mar 2020 07:38 PM PDT Forex markets appear relatively benign. The identified groups were already in their cages: safe havens, commodities, wannabe super power and China. Now at the margin the cages have become even more secure. USD looks best so I agree with the article - 1 month. |
How to Create a Candlestick Chart on Excel - Forex Factory Posted: 26 Feb 2020 12:00 AM PST A Japanese candlestick chart is a type of visual price display of a financial instrument. Usually charts are displayed as a line that combines the closing prices of the various trading sessions. The disadvantage of this type of display is that only the closing price of the session is displayed without giving any indication of the behavior of the price during the trading session. This problem is solved by the Japanese candlestick chart, where for each trading session it is possible to identify the entire price behavior throughout the trading session. In particular, the low price, high price, closing price and opening ... (full story) |
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