EUR/USD Forecast: Filling Major Gap on Long-term Chart - DailyForex.com
EUR/USD Forecast: Filling Major Gap on Long-term Chart - DailyForex.com |
| EUR/USD Forecast: Filling Major Gap on Long-term Chart - DailyForex.com Posted: 13 Feb 2020 10:18 PM PST The Euro initially tried to rally during the Thursday session, but then rolled over just below the 1.09 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of choppiness and negativity, and the Euro should have oversold quite some time ago. I am a bit surprised it has taken so long for this thing to break down, but with the European Union economic figures looking so poor and the US numbers coming out better than expected more often than not, this makes quite a bit of sense. Furthermore, looking at the bond markets, the United States 10 year note offers roughly 1.57%, while German bonds offering negative yields. At this point, it's a no-brainer to put money in the United States. After that, a lot of money is flowing into the S&P 500 and other US indices as the US companies seem to be looked at as a bit of a safety play when it comes to the equity markets, especially in relation to places like Europe. The 1.09 level being broken earlier this week was a very negative candlestick, and when I look at the longer-term charts, I believe that we will go looking towards the gap underneath at the 1.00750 level, and at this point that gap looks to be filled rather soon. That being said though, I think that it's only a matter of time before we get some type of rally that we can sell into, especially near the 1.09 level, and again at the 1.10 level after that. Advertisement Great trade opportunities are waiting - don't wait to profit from this pair! TRADE NOWIt is a bit oversold, so I think that rally should be coming sooner rather than later unless of course we get some type of move directly to that gap. The 50 day EMA is rolling over and starting to try to catch up, but it's can it take quite some time to get there. The candlestick for the session on Thursday truly shows negativity, but at this point I think that short covering will come into play late in the day on Friday, if nothing else just so that people can take profit. Longer-term though, selling those rallies will be the best way going forward as the US dollar should continue to be king going forward. In fact, it's not until the market breaks above the 1.10 level that I would consider buying it but would still have to reevaluate.
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| Posted: 10 Feb 2020 12:00 AM PST In this weekly Forex forecast, I'm going to show you exactly how I'm trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, EURGBP, and GBPCAD through February 14, 2020. Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
EURUSD ForecastLast weekend, I discussed the significance of Monday's open. Because the January 31st rally occurred on a Friday, and at the end of a month, I wanted to see how Monday opened before making a decision. More specifically, I stated that a gap down would signal weakness. That statement applied to both the EURUSD and GBPUSD. Sure enough, the euro and pound both gapped lower to start last week, which signaled weakness. Get Instant Access to the Same "New York Close" Forex Charts Used by Justin Bennett! I also wrote about EURUSD on February 6th when the pair was testing the 1.0990 key level. We were watching for a break below that level, which would target 1.0940. Thursday's 1.0980 close confirmed the breakdown, and Friday's session reached a low of 1.0941, just one pip above the level I mentioned. That 1.0940 support level could be a factor early this week. However, I will continue to look for shorts here while the pair is below 1.0990 on a daily closing basis. A daily close below 1.0940 would expose 1.0900. Get Access To The Same New York Close Forex Charts I Use. DOWNLOAD the charting platform for free!
GBPUSD ForecastGBPUSD played out perfectly for us last week. I wrote about the potential for a breakdown on February 3rd and again on the 5th. On Wednesday, I announced my short position from 1.3044 in the member's area. I remain short GBPUSD going into the new week. As I mentioned a few times last week, the first key support following the recent breakdown comes in at 1.2770. It's going to take a close below that to expose 1.2570. As long as the area between 1.2980 and 1.3000 is intact as new resistance on a daily closing basis, I favor GBPUSD shorts.
Given the price action over the last few months, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move down to 1.2570 or even 1.2380 over the coming weeks.
NZDUSD ForecastI wrote about NZDUSD on February 7th. In that post, I discussed how a daily close below 0.6435 would expose the next key support at 0.6320 this week. The NZDUSD closed below 0.6435 on Friday. That means the 0.6435 area will likely attract sellers if tested as new resistance this week. Of course, there are no guarantees we will see a retest of that level first. Given the recent weakness here, we could see NZDUSD sell-off immediately this week toward that 0.6320 region. Regardless, I'll continue to favor shorts while below 0.6435 on a daily closing basis. Want Me To Help You Become A Better Forex Trader? Get a Lifetime Membership Today and receive exclusive member-only content including one to two new videos every day. Save 40% in February!
EURGBP ForecastThe EURGBP has been my most controversial idea so far in 2020. I wrote about a potential bottom here on January 31st. At the time, the EURGBP was trading near 0.8390 or about 100 pips below Friday's closing price. I then discussed the February 3rd close above the 0.8450 key level, which was likely to serve as support going forward. Last but not least, I wrote about 0.8450 serving as new support on February 5th. I still hold a EURGBP long position from January 31st, which I added to during last Wednesday's dip below 0.8450. However, I still think it's going to take a daily close above 0.8590 to confirm the bottom that's in progress. Be sure to watch the video above where I point out a short-term channel that could offer a breakout opportunity this week. Key support remains 0.8450.
GBPCAD ForecastThe GBPCAD boasts what is arguably the best-looking chart this week. I discussed the pair's counterpart (EURCAD) on Thursday, noting how the 1.4600/30 area would likely serve as new resistance following the recent false break. The EURCAD reached a high of 1.4613 on Friday before sliding 60 pips lower. As for GBPCAD, the rising broadening wedge in the chart below hints at a move lower in the coming days and weeks. I wrote about this wedge pattern just before the weekend. If you read that post, you know that it's going to take a daily close below the 1.7050/90 area to open the door to 1.6830 and perhaps 1.6600. But given what could be a lower high coupled with this broadening wedge, a break lower does seem imminent, in my opinion. I'm already short GBPCAD from 1.7224, an entry I posted in the Skype group I run for higher net worth traders. Get Access To The Same New York Close Forex Charts I Use. DOWNLOAD the charting platform for free!
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