NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 16, 2019 Forecast - FX Empire

NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – April 16, 2019 Forecast - FX Empire
AETOS daily forex market commentary - Leaprate Forex Trading News
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Descending triangle breakout on 15-minute chart, today's close pivotal - ForexTV.com

Posted: 15 Apr 2019 09:56 PM PDT

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower on Tuesday, following a similar move in the Australian Dollar after the RBA released the minutes from its last policy meeting, which were construed as dovish. The minutes showed that policymakers discussed interest-rate cuts and concluded there was "not a strong case" for an adjustment in the near term. This decision was in contrast to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), who said in March that its next move would be a rate cut.

At 04:25 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6756, down 0.0007 or -0.10%.

Although optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal has been helping to prop up the Kiwi, prices still weakened ahead of a domestic consumer inflation report on Wednesday. Economists expect quarterly CPI to have risen 0.3 percent, for an annual increase of 1.7 percent. That compares to the Reserve Bank's quarterly projection of 0.2 percent for an annual rise of 1.6 percent.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum shifted higher last Friday although there has been very little follow-through to the upside.

A trade through .6713 will negate a closing price reversal bottom that led to the shift in momentum. It will also signal the resumption of the downtrend. The next major target bottom is .6706.

The minor trend is up. This, along with the confirmation of the closing price reversal bottom, shifted momentum to the upside. A trade through .6713 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum back to the downside.

The main range is .6970 to .6591. Its retracement zone at .6781 to .6852 is resistance. It is also controlling the longer-term direction of the NZD/USD.

The short-term range is .6591 to .6943. The NZD/USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone at .6767 to .6725. This zone, acting like support, is preventing an acceleration to the downside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6756, the direction of the NZD/USD on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .6767.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6767 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into another 50% level at .6781. Taking out Monday's high at .6784 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the Fibonacci level at .6825 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6767 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for an extension of the break into the Fibonacci level at .6725. This is followed by a pair of main bottoms at .6713 and .6706.

Look out to the downside if .6706 fails as support. The next major target is the January 3 bottom at .6591.

AETOS daily forex market commentary - Leaprate Forex Trading News

Posted: 15 Apr 2019 02:52 AM PDT

ASIC and FCA licensed Retail FX broker AETOS Capital Group have provided their daily commentary on traditional markets for April 15, 2019.

EURUSD

The Euro closed higher on Friday, closing at 1.1297(+38 pips) against the greenback. Sronger risk appetite boosted the EUR on Friday. The American dollar came under selling pressure amid resurgent risk appetite, which sent worldwide stocks to the upside. Major factor was the beginning of the earning seasons in the US, with JP Morgan reporting record revenues and profits in Q1.

Dollar's slump followed an attempt to recover ground Thursday, which ended being reversed, so the currency reached fresh multi-week lows against most rivals, increasing the risk of such a move to continue. Further supporting the pair's advance, EU Industrial Production fell by less-than-anticipated, down by 0.2% MoM and by 0.3% YoY, while the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined to 96.9 in April, according to preliminary estimates, from a previous 98.4.

The upcoming week will be a shortened one with most markets closed on Good Friday, as only Japanese markets will open that day. Nevertheless, there's plenty of relevant data scheduled, with the most relevant being business activity updates in the EU, in the form of April preliminary Markit PMI. This Monday, there's nothing scheduled in the EU, while the US will only offer the NY Empire State Manufacturing Activity, forecasted at 6.0 vs. the previous 3.7, and February TIC Flows.

EURUSD Daily Chart

Based on the chart above, the EUR/USD pair has met resistance at around the 50% retracement of the 1.1447/1.1183 decline but held above the 38.2% retracement of the same slide at around 1.1285, the immediate support. In the daily chart, a long-term descendant trend line which comes from September high stands well above the current level, while a mild bearish 100 DMA (Red Line) converges with the 50% retracement of the same decline at around 1.1350. In the mentioned timeframe the pair settled above its 20 DMA(Blue Line), while technical indicators advanced, the Momentum still unable to enter positive territory and the RSI currently at 55, all of which leans the scale to the upside, although only above the mentioned trend line, the longer term bearish trend will be at risk.

GBPUSD

The Cable pair made positive gains to end last week as well, closing at 1.3072(+18 pips) against the greenback. Dollar's broad weakness aided the cable pair to reach a high of 1.3132 on Friday, its highest for the week, although, once again, it was unable to retain the 1.3100 mark, ending the week barely up below the figure.

This past week, the EU granted the UK a Brexit flexible extension up to October 31, which means that the UK can leave earlier if a deal is agreed within the kingdom, something quite unlikely, as the Parliament had already rejected May's deal three times. Nor May, neither the EU want to reopen negotiations to change the withdrawal agreement, while lawmakers won't accept May's deal. So far, the only thing all parts involved agreed on, is to avoid a no-deal Brexit, which provided some temporal relieve to the Sterling. But the critical issue that prevents reaching an agreement, the Irish backstop, remains unsolved.

Meanwhile, cross-party talks between PM May and opposition leader Corbyn aimed to break the Brexit impasse, headed nowhere, with Corbyn accusing May of sticking to her 'red lines,' and showing no real compromise. There are no macroeconomic releases scheduled in the UK this Monday.

GBPUSD 4 Hour Chart

The GBP/USD pair has been consolidating within a well-limited range this last week, with speculative interest rushing to take profits out of the table once it reaches the 1.3100 region. In the daily chart, Friday's rally met sellers around a daily descendant trend line coming from March high at 1.3381, also the 20 SMA(Blue line), gaining bearish strength at around 1.3125.

Technical indicators in the mentioned chart remain within negative levels, the Momentum aiming modestly higher an the RSI flat at around 53, offering a neutral-to-bearish stance. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the price settled below a directionless 200 EMA(Red Line) and around an also flat 20 SMA(Blue Line), while technical indicators head south around their mid-lines, skewing the risk toward the upside.

Major Economic Events happening this week (AEDT Time Zone)

Economic event (Date)	Previous	Forecasted	Actual
AU-RBA Meeting Minutes (16 April)	N/A	N/A	N/A
GB- Claimant Count Change for March (16 April)	27K	20K	TBA
DE- ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (16 April)	-3.6	1	TBA
JP- Balance of Trade for March (17 April)	¥339B	¥310B	TBA
CN- GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1 (17 April)	1.5%	1.4%	TBA
GB- Inflation Rate YoY (17 April)	1.9%	2%	TBA
EA- Balance of Trade for Feb (17 April)	€1.5B	€12.3B	TBA
EA- Inflation Rate YoY final March (17 April)	1.5%	1.4%	TBA
CA- Balance of Trade for Feb (17 April)	C$-4.25B	C$-3.5B	TBA
CA- Inflation Rate YoY for Mar (17 April)	1.5%	1.8%	TBA
AU- Unemployment Rate for March (18 April)	4.9%	5%	TBA
DE- Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (18 April)	44.1	45.0	TBA
US- Retail Sales MoM March (18 April)	-0.2%	0.9%	TBA
JP- Inflation Rate YoY for March (19 April)	0.2%	0.5%	TBA
US-Building Permits for March (19 April)	1.291M	1.3M	TBA

*Pulled from Trading Economics website

Risk Disclaimer

The information above is of general nature only and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or investment needs. The products and services provided are issued by AETOS Capital Group Pty. Ltd. (AFSL: 313016, ACN: 125113117). Trading Forex margin and CFDs carries a high level of risk, and losses can exceed your deposits. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before you make an investment decision. Please refer to our Product Disclosure Statement which you can obtain from our website for more details. AETOS has the ownership of the contents of this FX commentary. Copying, reprinting or publishing to a third party is not permitted.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Descending triangle breakout on 15-minute chart, today's close pivotal - ForexTV.com

Posted: 15 Apr 2019 06:02 PM PDT

Posted by: EUR Editor in EUR 6 hours ago

EUR/USD stable at around 1.1300 waiting for a catalyst The dollar recovered some ground in the US afternoon, but major pairs hold on to familiar levels unable to catch directional momentum in the …
Read Full Story at source (may require registration)

Search This Blog

Forex Trading Platforms